Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Brandon Lowe

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample3039.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.2
F 14.9
V 14.1
Model 19.4% Market 19.9% Gap -1.2pp
DraftKings 385 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.9% Market 73.0% Gap +13.2pp
BetMGM -270 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.4% Market -- Gap +13.8pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.9%
85
Exit velocity91.1
87
Hard-hit%46.2%
81
xBA0.353
80
xSLG0.651
88
xwOBA0.336
77
BB%9.5%
61
Bat speed70.9
70
K%27.3%
24
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength84.7 · 2B
31
Outs Above Avg10.0 · 2B
99
Range Runs7.1 · 2B
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · 2B
49
Sprint Speed26.9 · 2B
36
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.8%
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.1%
32
Correct Decisions64.5%
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.314 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.396
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.375
RegressionNegative · -0.013
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)