Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 12 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Alec Bohm

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs HOUCristian Javier
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.056, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.052, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.4
F 12.0
V 13.2
Model 18.7% Market 10.7% Gap +7.6pp
DraftKings 805 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.9% Market 82.0% Gap +17.1pp
BetMGM -455 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 26.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.5% Market -- Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
44
Exit velocity90.5
84
Hard-hit%43.0%
72
xBA0.310
40
xSLG0.489
46
xwOBA0.322
71
BB%6.8%
31
Bat speed69.8
51
K%14.7%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.2 · 3B
10
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 3B
19
Range Runs-5.9 · 3B
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · 3B
27
Sprint Speed26.5 · 3B
26
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherCristian Javier
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-12
Palantir 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 14193 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1758 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1254 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9476 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 766 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 993 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.056 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)