Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Nathan Lukes

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs BALChris Bassitt
Sample855.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.5
F 12.6
V 7.9
Model 11.6% Market 9.1% Gap +2.2pp
DraftKings 960 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 54.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 54.2% Market 72.6% Gap +13.6pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 16.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.8% Market -- Gap +14.5pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
12
Exit velocity85.3
21
Hard-hit%28.5%
13 -24 vs proj
xBA0.303
32
xSLG0.408
16
xwOBA0.288
32 -28 vs proj
BB%5.8%
21 -27 vs proj
Bat speed65.1
8
K%14.4%
90
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.3 · RF
98
Arm Strength95.0 · RF
59
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
50
Range Runs2.0 · RF
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · RF
38
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.6%
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.7%
9
Correct Decisions62.3%
17
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
10
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.322 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.294
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.347
RegressionNegative · -0.059
Opposing pitcherChris Bassitt
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)