Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Jake McCarthy

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs NYYCam Schlittler
Sample1775.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 48.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 56.6% Market 57.5% Gap +8.8pp
BetMGM -135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 13.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.0% Market -- Gap +14.0pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
35
Exit velocity82.9
8
Hard-hit%28.8%
14
xBA0.334
69
xSLG0.498
50
xwOBA0.322
71
BB%5.2%
16
Bat speed67.6
27
K%16.0%
85
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.1 · LF
12
Arm Strength86.3 · LF
7
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
88
Range Runs1.2 · LF
61
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.1 · LF
97
Bolts87.0 · LF
99
SB Success Rate82.8% · LF
56
Sprint Speed29.9 · LF
99
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.7%
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.5%
93
Correct Decisions69.1%
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.285 to 0.364
RegressionNegative · -0.058
Opposing pitcherCam Schlittler
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)