Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Jake McCarthy

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCOL vs DET--
Sample1788.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 0.5
P 6.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 6.8% Market -- Gap +28.3pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
37
Exit velocity82.9
8
Hard-hit%29.3%
15
xBA0.334
68
xSLG0.499
51
xwOBA0.321
70
BB%5.1%
15
Bat speed67.5
25
K%16.1%
85
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.0 · LF
12
Arm Strength86.3 · LF
7
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
81
Range Runs1.0 · LF
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.1 · LF
96
Bolts95.0 · LF
99
SB Success Rate82.8% · LF
56
Sprint Speed29.9 · LF
98
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.2%
20
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.1%
92
Correct Decisions68.5%
75
Resists FastballwOBA 0.391
3
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.285 to 0.364
RegressionNegative · -0.058
Opposing pitcher--
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)