Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-20 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-20

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs ATLBryce Elder
Sample2987.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.5
F 15.5
V 14.9
Model 20.2% Market 16.4% Gap +3.1pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 42.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 42.3% Market 41.7% Gap +3.0pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 28.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.5% Market -- Gap +11.5pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.6%
83
Exit velocity91.5
89
Hard-hit%53.7%
96
xBA0.370
89
xSLG0.565
68
xwOBA0.352
86
BB%9.0%
55
Bat speed72.8
87
K%20.9%
59
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.7 · RF
91
Arm Strength100.8 · RF
96
Outs Above Avg2.0 · RF
90
Range Runs2.7 · RF
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · RF
34
Bolts17.0 · RF
77
SB Success Rate68.0% · RF
23
Sprint Speed28.9 · RF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3%
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.0%
89
Correct Decisions69.2%
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.337 to 0.417
RegressionPositive · 0.005
Opposing pitcherBryce Elder
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)