Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs BALChris Bassitt
Sample4231.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.5
F 12.6
V 13.2
Model 16.6% Market 16.4% Gap -0.3pp
DraftKings 490 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.6% Market 83.0% Gap +17.5pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 31.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 31.7% Market -- Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
59 -37 vs proj
Exit velocity90.8
86
Hard-hit%45.5%
82
xBA0.333
67
xSLG0.470
40
xwOBA0.333
79 -20 vs proj
BB%9.1%
59 -21 vs proj
Bat speed74.8
97
K%12.7%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg6.0 · 1B
92
Range Runs4.5 · 1B
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 1B
29
SB Success Rate83.3% · 1B
59
Sprint Speed26.4 · 1B
24
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7%
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.4%
84
Correct Decisions68.0%
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
74
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.313 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.314
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.376
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.348 to 0.436
RegressionPositive · 0.008
Opposing pitcherChris Bassitt
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)