Mithrandir Metrics
NL 2026-07-14 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-14

Juan Soto

NL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupNL vs ALDylan Cease
Sample4133.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.2
F 15.3
V 14.1
Model 19.2% Market 23.8% Gap -4.6pp
BetMGM 320 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.1% Market 79.2% Gap +11.6pp
BetMGM -380 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 62.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.9% Market -- Gap --pp
Internal -- tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.5%
98
Exit velocity92.0
92
Hard-hit%49.0%
88
xBA0.362
85
xSLG0.722
96
xwOBA0.429
100
BB%16.3%
98
Bat speed69.5
47
K%13.1%
93 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.5 · LF
14
Arm Strength87.7 · LF
12
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs-0.9 · LF
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · LF
14
SB Success Rate60.0% · LF
11
Sprint Speed25.9 · LF
16
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.8%
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
66
Correct Decisions70.5%
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.374 to 0.470
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherDylan Cease
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)