Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Juan Soto

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IL10 · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs ATLMartín Pérez
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.1
F 15.5
V 14.8
Model 19.6% Market 23.3% Gap -3.7pp
BetMGM 330 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.9% Market 79.0% Gap +14.9pp
BetMGM -375 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.8%
97
Exit velocity92.0
92
Hard-hit%49.0%
90
xBA0.356
82
xSLG0.705
94
xwOBA0.422
100
BB%17.4%
99
Bat speed69.6
48
K%13.6%
92 +19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.8 · LF
10
Arm Strength87.7 · LF
13
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
22
Range Runs-1.3 · LF
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.2 · LF
18
SB Success Rate60.0% · LF
11
Sprint Speed25.9 · LF
16
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.8%
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
66
Correct Decisions70.5%
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.374 to 0.470
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherMartín Pérez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)