Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IL10 · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs COLRyan Feltner
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 16.0
Model 18.8% Market 18.6% Gap -0.4pp
DraftKings 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.5% Market 77.5% Gap +15.3pp
BetMGM -345 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
51 -32 vs proj
Exit velocity89.3
68
Hard-hit%42.8%
71
xBA0.326
59
xSLG0.554
66
xwOBA0.296
41 -33 vs proj
BB%10.6%
75
Bat speed70.7
68
K%29.1%
19
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 2B
25
Arm Strength83.6 · 2B
22
Outs Above Avg12.0 · 2B
97
Range Runs9.3 · 2B
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.5 · 2B
98
Bolts7.0 · 2B
56
SB Success Rate86.5% · 2B
70
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
75

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.276 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherRyan Feltner
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)