Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-07-21 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-21

Jonathan Aranda

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs TORKevin Gausman
Sample1020.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 12.8
Model 16.9% Market 12.8% Gap +3.7pp
DraftKings 655 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 59.5% Market 78.0% Gap +15.8pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 21.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.4% Market -- Gap +10.8pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
71
Exit velocity91.2
87
Hard-hit%45.3%
77
xBA0.364
87
xSLG0.624
83
xwOBA0.366
93
BB%12.1%
85 +30 vs proj
Bat speed68.4
32
K%22.1%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Range Runs-0.7 · 1B
42
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.1 · 1B
8
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
12
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.7%
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
55
Correct Decisions67.7%
65
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.335 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.350 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.402
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.309 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.021
Opposing pitcherKevin Gausman
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)