Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-08-21 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-21

Jonathan Aranda

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs BALTrevor Rogers
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 14 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 48.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 57.0% Market 58.3% Gap +10.0pp
BetMGM -140 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 7.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 7.8% Market -- Gap +20.0pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
74
Exit velocity91.1
87
Hard-hit%45.6%
80
xBA0.361
87
xSLG0.612
82
xwOBA0.353
90
BB%10.5%
72
Bat speed68.5
34
K%22.9%
48
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · 1B
98
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-0.5 · 1B
47
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.8 · 1B
7
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
11

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.309 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.014
Opposing pitcherTrevor Rogers
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)