Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Jonathan Aranda

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs ATLMartín Pérez
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 39.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 39.8% Market 59.2% Gap +9.1pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 8.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 8.9% Market -- Gap +19.6pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
71
Exit velocity91.2
88
Hard-hit%45.5%
82
xBA0.357
86
xSLG0.609
82
xwOBA0.348
90
BB%9.9%
68
Bat speed68.6
36
K%23.5%
46
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · 1B
98
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
72
Range Runs0.4 · 1B
58
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.3 · 1B
5
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
11
SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.309 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.013
Opposing pitcherMartín Pérez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)