Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-10-15 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-10-15

Jonathan Aranda

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs CLEGavin Williams
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Home Runs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Fangorn calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.039, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.034, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.089, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.5
F 15.1
V 11.7
Model 15.8% Market 12.8% Gap +2.5pp
DraftKings 655 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.8% Market 77.8% Gap +15.1pp
BetMGM -350 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 12500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
75
Exit velocity91.3
90
Hard-hit%47.3%
88
xBA0.356
86
xSLG0.617
83
xwOBA0.348
91
BB%9.7%
66
Bat speed68.6
36
K%23.7%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · 1B
99
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
81
Range Runs1.0 · 1B
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.5 · 1B
5
Sprint Speed25.7 · 1B
12
SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.309 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.013
Opposing pitcherGavin Williams
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-10-15
Palantir 22410 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d error rising
Fangorn 22410 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error rising
Valinor 16722 props Brier 0.115 ECE 0.002 14d error rising
Palantir 2000 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1496 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Palantir 10880 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.042 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 866 props Brier 0.169 ECE 0.039 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1106 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)