Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-01 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-01

Freddy Fermin

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSD vs CHCColin Rea
Sample1017.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.2
F 17.2
V 12.6
Model 18.6% Market 9.7% Gap +8.6pp
DraftKings 900 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.5% Market 80.4% Gap +13.5pp
BetMGM -410 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 28.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.2% Market -- Gap +3.8pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.7%
11 -21 vs proj
Exit velocity83.7
9
Hard-hit%25.8%
8 -22 vs proj
xBA0.251
5
xSLG0.369
7
xwOBA0.265
13 -21 vs proj
BB%10.3%
68 +49 vs proj
Bat speed66.2
13
K%19.5%
67
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.0 · C
90
Catcher Throwing1.7 · C
87
Framing Runs1.4 · C
72
Pop Time1.9 · C
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · C
41
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.314
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.257 to 0.319
RegressionNegative · -0.018
Opposing pitcherColin Rea
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)