Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Josh Lowe

LAA · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 9 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupLAA vs WSHCade Cavalli
Sample1668.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 49.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.6% Market 67.2% Gap +11.8pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 15.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.8% Market -- Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
57
Exit velocity87.5
46
Hard-hit%36.2%
40 -26 vs proj
xBA0.314
44
xSLG0.559
68
xwOBA0.292
37 -22 vs proj
BB%8.2%
47
Bat speed71.0
72
K%28.8%
21 -22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs3.4 · LF
94
Arm Strength91.7 · LF
34
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs1.8 · LF
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts2.0 · LF
26
SB Success Rate87.5% · LF
74
Sprint Speed28.0 · LF
65
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9%
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7%
75
Correct Decisions67.4%
63
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.322
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.271 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcherCade Cavalli
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)