Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Mickey Moniak

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs NYY--
Sample1649.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 0.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +30.1pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
72
Exit velocity89.2
67
Hard-hit%40.1%
58
xBA0.303
32
xSLG0.557
67
xwOBA0.285
30 -46 vs proj
BB%5.0%
14
Bat speed72.9
88
K%27.0%
29
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · LF
63
Arm Strength87.9 · LF
12
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
49
Range Runs-0.5 · LF
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · LF
62
Bolts1.0 · LF
11
Sprint Speed28.2 · LF
72
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 53.2%
7
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.7%
81
Correct Decisions62.7%
20
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline92
14

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.291 to 0.354
RegressionNegative · -0.060
Opposing pitcher--
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)