Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Bo Bichette

NYM · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs ATLMartín Pérez
Sample3491.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.2
F 15.5
V 9.0
Model 20.4% Market 12.2% Gap +7.9pp
DraftKings 695 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 83.8% Market 84.7% Gap +16.6pp
BetMGM -555 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 35.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 35.1% Market -- Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
45
Exit velocity89.9
75
Hard-hit%43.7%
71
xBA0.349
78
xSLG0.518
53
xwOBA0.324
68
BB%7.1%
34
Bat speed68.3
30
K%17.8%
76
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
61
Arm Strength88.6 · 3B
66
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
84
Range Runs0.5 · 3B
55
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.9 · 3B
9
Sprint Speed26.0 · 3B
18
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.5%
16
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9%
42
Correct Decisions62.6%
19
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
15
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.324
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.312 to 0.384
RegressionNegative · -0.003
Opposing pitcherMartín Pérez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)