Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Adolis García

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IL60 · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.7
F 12.6
V 13.5
Model 20.4% Market 17.0% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 465 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.4% Market 75.3% Gap +14.4pp
BetMGM -305 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
64 -18 vs proj
Exit velocity92.4
95
Hard-hit%48.8%
91
xBA0.346
78
xSLG0.569
72
xwOBA0.294
38 -31 vs proj
BB%8.6%
53 +20 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
53
K%31.3%
12 -25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · RF
76
Arm Strength96.8 · RF
73
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
94
Range Runs3.2 · RF
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.5 · RF
26
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.5%
66
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.8%
81
Correct Decisions67.7%
67
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.017
Opposing pitcherHayden Wesneski
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)