Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-08-22 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-22

Randy Arozarena

SEA · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSEA vs CHCDavid Peterson
Sample3362.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 12.8
Model 16.3% Market 14.4% Gap +1.4pp
FanDuel 570 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.2% Market 73.3% Gap +13.3pp
BetMGM -275 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.0% Market -- Gap +9.4pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
55 -25 vs proj
Exit velocity90.7
84
Hard-hit%42.6%
69 -20 vs proj
xBA0.348
79
xSLG0.553
66
xwOBA0.346
87
BB%9.5%
61
Bat speed68.7
38
K%21.3%
58 +17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.0 · LF
10
Arm Strength90.7 · LF
23
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · LF
4
Range Runs-4.1 · LF
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.8 · LF
90
SB Success Rate85.7% · LF
67
Sprint Speed26.9 · LF
36
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7%
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1%
40
Correct Decisions64.7%
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.324
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.391
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.277 to 0.369
RegressionNegative · -0.050
Opposing pitcherDavid Peterson
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)