Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Randy Arozarena

SEA · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs TEXCal Quantrill
Sample3417.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.0
F 12.0
V 12.2
Model 15.5% Market 13.8% Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 595 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.8% Market 71.8% Gap +13.2pp
BetMGM -255 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
56 -26 vs proj
Exit velocity90.5
83
Hard-hit%41.3%
65 -25 vs proj
xBA0.347
79
xSLG0.562
70
xwOBA0.348
90
BB%10.1%
70
Bat speed68.8
38
K%21.8%
55
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.1 · LF
11
Arm Strength90.7 · LF
24
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · LF
4
Range Runs-4.3 · LF
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · LF
80
SB Success Rate82.6% · LF
55
Sprint Speed27.0 · LF
39
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.1%
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9%
42
Correct Decisions65.1%
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.277 to 0.369
RegressionNegative · -0.046
Opposing pitcherCal Quantrill
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)