Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Jj Bleday

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs CLESlade Cecconi
Sample1612.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.3
F 9.3
V 10.6
Model 18.3% Market 12.8% Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel 650 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.1% Market 67.2% Gap +11.6pp
BetMGM -205 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 15.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.2% Market -- Gap +12.8pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
79 +28 vs proj
Exit velocity88.9
60
Hard-hit%42.2%
64 +21 vs proj
xBA0.344
74
xSLG0.609
79
xwOBA0.365
93 +53 vs proj
BB%13.3%
89 +20 vs proj
Bat speed71.6
76
K%20.4%
62 +23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
48
Arm Strength98.5 · LF
90
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
11
Range Runs-1.6 · LF
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · LF
54
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
53
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions71.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.351 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherSlade Cecconi
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)