Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Spencer Steer

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IL10 · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs CLESlade Cecconi
Sample2100.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 13.0
Model 19.2% Market 13.8% Gap +5.0pp
DraftKings 600 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.1% Market 74.0% Gap +13.4pp
BetMGM -285 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.0%
86 +41 vs proj
Exit velocity89.7
71
Hard-hit%42.8%
67 +24 vs proj
xBA0.334
65
xSLG0.614
81
xwOBA0.343
82 +23 vs proj
BB%9.0%
55
Bat speed69.6
49
K%21.6%
54
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · 1B
4
Arm Strength91.3 · 1B
81
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
68
Range Runs-1.6 · 1B
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.1 · 1B
89
Bolts1.0 · 1B
14
Sprint Speed28.5 · 1B
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3%
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4%
37
Correct Decisions68.0%
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.381 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.279 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.024
Opposing pitcherSlade Cecconi
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)