Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Spencer Steer

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IL10 · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCIN vs LADTarik Skubal
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.8
F 12.6
V 12.7
Model 18.0% Market 14.4% Gap +3.1pp
FanDuel 570 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.9% Market 73.0% Gap +13.7pp
BetMGM -270 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.9%
86 +37 vs proj
Exit velocity89.6
73
Hard-hit%42.6%
70 +23 vs proj
xBA0.334
70
xSLG0.614
83
xwOBA0.342
86 +23 vs proj
BB%8.9%
56
Bat speed69.6
49
K%22.0%
54
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.0 · 1B
4
Arm Strength91.3 · 1B
80
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
72
Range Runs-1.6 · 1B
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · 1B
79
Bolts1.0 · 1B
11
Sprint Speed28.5 · 1B
80
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3%
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4%
38
Correct Decisions68.0%
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.279 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.024
Opposing pitcherTarik Skubal
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)