Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-20 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-20

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · Hitter
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPIT vs NYYRyan Weathers
Sample3922.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 13.7
Model 20.2% Market 13.5% Gap +6.3pp
FanDuel 615 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.0% Market 75.6% Gap +14.7pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.5% Market -- Gap +8.7pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
69
Exit velocity91.1
87
Hard-hit%48.0%
86
xBA0.356
82
xSLG0.629
84
xwOBA0.370
94 +17 vs proj
BB%14.7%
96 +53 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
65
K%22.5%
49
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · LF
45
Arm Strength93.9 · LF
59
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
6
Range Runs-3.8 · LF
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · LF
61
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
93
Sprint Speed28.0 · LF
68
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.7%
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.9%
78
Correct Decisions71.6%
91
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.377
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherRyan Weathers
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)