Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample3946.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.3
F 12.2
V 14.5
Model 19.9% Market 13.5% Gap +5.9pp
FanDuel 615 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.3% Market 75.3% Gap +13.8pp
BetMGM -305 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 21.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.4% Market -- Gap +8.9pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
70
Exit velocity91.0
86
Hard-hit%46.9%
84
xBA0.350
79
xSLG0.616
81
xwOBA0.358
90
BB%14.1%
95 +50 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
65
K%23.8%
43
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · LF
62
Arm Strength95.0 · LF
65
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
6
Range Runs-3.4 · LF
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · LF
60
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
94
Sprint Speed28.1 · LF
70
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.7%
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.9%
78
Correct Decisions71.6%
91
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.377
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.391
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)