Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-07-30 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-30

Austin Martin

MIN · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs KCNoah Cameron
Sample638.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 54.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.4% Market 65.5% Gap +11.4pp
BetMGM -190 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 15.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.9% Market -- Gap +20.4pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.3%
6
Exit velocity86.4
31
Hard-hit%28.1%
11 -21 vs proj
xBA0.306
32
xSLG0.410
16
xwOBA0.311
55
BB%14.2%
95 +46 vs proj
Bat speed65.9
11
K%18.1%
74
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · RF
65
Arm Strength92.1 · RF
43
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
79
Range Runs1.0 · RF
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · RF
40
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
33
Sprint Speed27.7 · RF
58
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 80.0%
98
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3%
58
Correct Decisions74.2%
96
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline114
96
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.043
Opposing pitcherNoah Cameron
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)