Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Mark Vientos

NYM · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IL10 · 6 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs ATLMartín Pérez
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.1
F 9.4
V 10.9
Model 17.4% Market 16.0% Gap +0.7pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.6% Market 73.7% Gap +13.4pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.4%
82
Exit velocity89.9
74
Hard-hit%43.9%
72
xBA0.315
41
xSLG0.602
78
xwOBA0.310
55 -17 vs proj
BB%4.8%
14 -20 vs proj
Bat speed71.8
78
K%23.8%
43
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.4 · 1B
38
Outs Above Avg-9.0 · 1B
2
Range Runs-6.3 · 1B
5
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.7 · 1B
13
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.8%
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.7%
86
Correct Decisions66.4%
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.342
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.377
RegressionPositive · 0.017
Opposing pitcherMartín Pérez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)