Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Mark Vientos

NYM · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 6 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYM vs NYYCarlos Rodón
Sample1340.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.3
F 10.8
V 10.6
Model 17.9% Market 16.0% Gap +1.3pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.9% Market 73.7% Gap +13.9pp
FanDuel 155 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 16.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.6% Market -- Gap +5.6pp
FanDuel 350 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
85
Exit velocity90.1
77
Hard-hit%44.7%
78
xBA0.316
48
xSLG0.606
81
xwOBA0.312
60 -16 vs proj
BB%4.6%
12 -21 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
78
K%23.5%
46
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.4 · 1B
36
Outs Above Avg-10.0 · 1B
1
Range Runs-6.9 · 1B
8
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · 1B
14
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.4%
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.3%
84
Correct Decisions66.6%
54
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.311
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.377
RegressionPositive · 0.010
Opposing pitcherCarlos Rodón
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)