Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Adley Rutschman

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IL10 · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs DETKeider Montero
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.2
F 12.2
V 13.6
Model 20.7% Market 11.9% Gap +8.3pp
DraftKings 710 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.6% Market 75.6% Gap +13.9pp
BetMGM -310 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
55
Exit velocity89.3
65
Hard-hit%42.9%
67 +22 vs proj
xBA0.327
58
xSLG0.516
51
xwOBA0.348
85
BB%10.4%
72
Bat speed69.2
43
K%13.7%
92
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.7 · C
80
Catcher Throwing3.3 · C
99
Framing Runs5.3 · C
97
Pop Time1.9 · C
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · C
29
Sprint Speed26.2 · C
22
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.371 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.380
RegressionNegative · -0.011
Opposing pitcherKeider Montero
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)