Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 12 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Sean Murphy

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 9 Neutral
MatchupATL vs TB--
Sample2061.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.056, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.052, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 0.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +39.4pp
FanDuel 430 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
37 -28 vs proj
Exit velocity86.4
34
Hard-hit%38.1%
49
xBA0.324
57
xSLG0.526
58
xwOBA0.263
16 -45 vs proj
BB%8.1%
46
Bat speed70.1
57
K%35.1%
4 -20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.6 · C
76
Catcher Throwing-0.4 · C
45
Framing Runs-0.8 · C
39
Pop Time2.0 · C
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · C
11
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 34.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions60.3%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline85
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.274 to 0.371
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcher--
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-12
Palantir 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 14193 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1758 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1254 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9476 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 766 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 993 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.056 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)