Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Xavier Edwards

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIA vs PHIZack Wheeler
Sample1292.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 5.1
F 3.4
V 10.6
Model 4.0% Market 8.0% Gap -4.0pp
BetMGM 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.9% Market 71.8% Gap +12.7pp
BetMGM -255 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.4% Market -- Gap +3.4pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
21 +15 vs proj
Exit velocity86.2
29
Hard-hit%28.5%
12
xBA0.310
36
xSLG0.441
26
xwOBA0.318
63 +19 vs proj
BB%11.5%
79 +33 vs proj
Bat speed65.8
10
K%13.7%
92
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength77.5 · 2B
2
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
84
Range Runs1.3 · 2B
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.6 · 2B
82
Bolts2.0 · 2B
32
SB Success Rate84.6% · 2B
62
Sprint Speed28.2 · 2B
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.9%
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1%
40
Correct Decisions68.3%
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.419
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.261 to 0.340
RegressionNegative · -0.041
Opposing pitcherZack Wheeler
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)