Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-07-28 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-28

Xavier Edwards

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIA vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample1297.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 6.4
F 8.6
V 10.6
Model 4.9% Market 8.0% Gap -3.1pp
BetMGM 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.6% Market 73.7% Gap +13.3pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 28.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.0% Market -- Gap +3.3pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
21 +15 vs proj
Exit velocity86.1
28
Hard-hit%28.3%
12
xBA0.312
38
xSLG0.442
26
xwOBA0.318
62 +19 vs proj
BB%11.4%
79 +32 vs proj
Bat speed65.8
10
K%13.8%
92
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength77.5 · 2B
2
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
77
Range Runs1.3 · 2B
62
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.6 · 2B
82
Bolts3.0 · 2B
41
SB Success Rate84.6% · 2B
62
Sprint Speed28.2 · 2B
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.9%
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1%
40
Correct Decisions68.3%
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.419
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.261 to 0.340
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)