Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-07-29 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-29

Xavier Edwards

MIA · Hitter
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo
Sample1299.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 5.9
F 7.4
V 9.4
Model 4.6% Market 8.0% Gap -3.4pp
BetMGM 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.4% Market 72.2% Gap +12.8pp
BetMGM -260 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 26.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.0% Market -- Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.0%
21
Exit velocity86.0
28
Hard-hit%28.5%
12
xBA0.312
38
xSLG0.442
26
xwOBA0.318
63 +20 vs proj
BB%11.2%
78 +32 vs proj
Bat speed65.8
9
K%13.8%
92
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength77.5 · 2B
2
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
78
Range Runs1.4 · 2B
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.7 · 2B
82
Bolts4.0 · 2B
48
SB Success Rate84.6% · 2B
62
Sprint Speed28.2 · 2B
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.6%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8%
41
Correct Decisions68.3%
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.415
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherJesús Luzardo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)