Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-07-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-04

Jake Burger

TEX · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupTEX vs DETJack Flaherty
Sample1902.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.4
F 14.9
V 16.2
Model 19.1% Market 18.8% Gap -0.3pp
DraftKings 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.3% Market 74.4% Gap +12.1pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.0% Market -- Gap +3.7pp
FanDuel 340 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
65
Exit velocity90.2
75
Hard-hit%47.0%
82
xBA0.333
63
xSLG0.557
65
xwOBA0.307
50
BB%8.3%
44
Bat speed73.0
90
K%25.6%
32
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
69
Range Runs1.3 · 1B
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.0 · 1B
43
Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B
48
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.8%
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
55
Correct Decisions63.2%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.300
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.364
RegressionNegative · -0.044
Opposing pitcherJack Flaherty
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)