Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Jake Burger

TEX · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 7 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupTEX vs SEABryce Miller
Sample2083.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.5
F 10.7
V 12.7
Model 14.7% Market 19.2% Gap -4.5pp
BetMGM 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.3% Market 74.4% Gap +14.1pp
BetMGM -290 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.6%
85
Exit velocity90.2
80
Hard-hit%47.2%
87
xBA0.334
70
xSLG0.605
81
xwOBA0.317
66
BB%8.2%
48 +31 vs proj
Bat speed73.8
93
K%26.5%
31
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
72
Range Runs0.6 · 1B
61
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · 1B
30
Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B
47
SB Success Rate66.7% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1%
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9%
64
Correct Decisions63.7%
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.364
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherBryce Miller
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)