Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-06-05 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-05

Casey Schmitt

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs CHCEdward Cabrera
Sample888.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 36.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 36.1% Market 52.2% Gap +1.4pp
FanDuel -135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +27.7pp
FanDuel 3500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.8%
94 +39 vs proj
Exit velocity89.6
64
Hard-hit%43.6%
65 +16 vs proj
xBA0.352
76
xSLG0.646
84
xwOBA0.349
79 +30 vs proj
BB%4.1%
8
Bat speed70.0
55
K%19.5%
66 +28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · 1B
8
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
70
Range Runs-0.5 · 1B
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · DH
40
SB Success Rate80.0% · DH
49
Sprint Speed28.1 · DH
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1%
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
46
Correct Decisions65.3%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.333
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.374 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.319
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherEdward Cabrera
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)