Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-07-20 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-20

Casey Schmitt

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 3 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample1035.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 36.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 36.0% Market 54.5% Gap +4.3pp
FanDuel -155 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 10.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 10.8% Market -- Gap +30.1pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
92 +35 vs proj
Exit velocity89.8
72
Hard-hit%44.3%
73 +18 vs proj
xBA0.369
88
xSLG0.656
88
xwOBA0.361
90 +38 vs proj
BB%3.3%
5 -16 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
62
K%19.0%
70 +29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
46
Arm Strength89.5 · LF
19
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs1.8 · LF
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · LF
48
SB Success Rate87.5% · LF
71
Sprint Speed28.1 · LF
70
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.5%
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
58
Correct Decisions67.1%
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.345
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.324
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.358
RegressionPositive · 0.004
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)