Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Austin Hays

CWS · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IL60 · 5 Neutral
MatchupCWS vs NYYMax Fried
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.4
F 14.9
V 8.8
Model 17.2% Market 11.7% Gap +5.1pp
DraftKings 725 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.9% Market 71.0% Gap +12.6pp
BetMGM -245 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.7%
9 -39 vs proj
Exit velocity87.9
47
Hard-hit%46.5%
83 +37 vs proj
xBA0.409
98
xSLG0.523
55
xwOBA0.283
26
BB%1.7%
1 -18 vs proj
Bat speed68.9
39
K%25.4%
34
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
22
Arm Runs-0.9 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-0.7 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · LF
48
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.363
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.258 to 0.333
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcherMax Fried
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)