Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-08-18 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-18

Austin Hays

CWS · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 7 Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCWS vs CHCKevin Gausman
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 55.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.5% Market 67.2% Gap +11.6pp
BetMGM -205 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 14.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 14.1% Market -- Gap +10.9pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.9%
21 -28 vs proj
Exit velocity86.6
34
Hard-hit%40.4%
58
xBA0.396
97
xSLG0.516
55
xwOBA0.286
28
BB%1.4%
1 -19 vs proj
Bat speed69.7
51
K%24.3%
40
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
22
Arm Runs-1.0 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-1.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · LF
39
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.4%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.256 to 0.331
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcherKevin Gausman
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)