Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-08-22 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-22

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs ATHJacob Lopez
Sample2913.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.9
F 12.1
V 14.6
Model 18.8% Market 19.5% Gap -1.4pp
DraftKings 395 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.9% Market 80.8% Gap +14.7pp
BetMGM -420 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.4% Market -- Gap +12.7pp
FanDuel 185 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%11.3%
99
Exit velocity94.6
99
Hard-hit%53.4%
97
xBA0.415
99
xSLG0.857
99
xwOBA0.461
100
BB%15.5%
97 +18 vs proj
Bat speed74.9
98
K%17.3%
80
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength88.2 · LF
13
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
12
Arm Runs-0.4 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-1.6 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-4.5 · DH
1
Sprint Speed25.1 · DH
6
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.8%
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
62
Correct Decisions65.6%
45
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.339 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.317
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.366 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.404
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.333 to 0.438
RegressionNegative · -0.004
Opposing pitcherJacob Lopez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)