Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Isaac Paredes

HOU · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupHOU vs PHIZack Wheeler
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.6
F 12.5
V 13.5
Model 18.3% Market 15.2% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 530 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.9% Market 70.2% Gap +12.6pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 15.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.7% Market -- Gap +5.9pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.5%
30
Exit velocity86.2
31
Hard-hit%28.7%
14
xBA0.289
19
xSLG0.433
25
xwOBA0.322
71
BB%10.6%
76
Bat speed65.6
10
K%13.5%
93
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 3B
38
Arm Strength81.6 · 3B
7
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
46
Range Runs-0.7 · 3B
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · 3B
22
Sprint Speed25.1 · 3B
6

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.366
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherZack Wheeler
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)