Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-07-23 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-23

Iván Herrera

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 2 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSTL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt
Sample1045.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 12.4
Model 15.7% Market 12.6% Gap +2.8pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 29.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.9% Market 30.6% Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel 215 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
34 -34 vs proj
Exit velocity88.9
60
Hard-hit%39.2%
50 -25 vs proj
xBA0.310
34
xSLG0.470
35
xwOBA0.338
77
BB%11.2%
79 +22 vs proj
Bat speed71.8
77
K%16.7%
81
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.1 · C
41
Catcher Throwing-3.2 · C
3
Framing Runs-0.5 · C
39
Pop Time2.0 · C
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · DH
11
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
93
Sprint Speed25.9 · DH
16
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1%
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0%
41
Correct Decisions66.1%
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.314
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.324 to 0.383
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcherBrandon Pfaadt
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)