Mithrandir Metrics

TOTAL BASES 2026-07-23 · saved artifact ROWS 43 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 0.5 · 2.5

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

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Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Total Bases board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	TB proj	2+ TB	Hits	TB mult	Best line
01	Yandy DíazTB	TB vs TORShane Bieber	P 67.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	32.3%Under prob · Palantir	16.1%no-vig	-0.99%	2.5417count	0.6555prob	1.4486proj	0.992context	BetMGM -520 avg 1 books
02	Gabriel MorenoAZ	AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 23.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	76.8%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.46%	1.6294count	0.4686prob	0.973proj	1.098context	DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
03	Ketel MarteAZ	AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 67.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	32.7%Under prob · Palantir	16.5%no-vig	-1.06%	2.9844count	0.6934prob	1.4572proj	1.098context	BetMGM -505 avg 1 books
04	Bo NaylorCLE	CLE vs MINTaj Bradley	P 24.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	75.5%Under prob · Palantir	73.2%no-vig	+3.06%	1.6974count	0.4928prob	0.832proj	0.942context	DraftKings 280 avg 1 books
05	Manny MachadoSD	SD vs ATLChris Sale	P 65.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	34.1%Under prob · Palantir	18.3%no-vig	-1.08%	2.6187count	0.6501prob	1.3828proj	1.01context	BetMGM -445 avg 1 books
06	Ryan JeffersMIN	MIN vs CLEGavin Williams	P 24.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	75.7%Under prob · Palantir	73.5%no-vig	+3.26%	1.6786count	0.4802prob	0.9071proj	1.008context	DraftKings 285 avg 1 books
07	Corbin CarrollAZ	AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 66.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	34.0%Under prob · Palantir	18.3%no-vig	-1.01%	2.9876count	0.7252prob	1.3976proj	1.098context	BetMGM -445 avg 1 books
08	Victor CaratiniMIN	MIN vs CLEGavin Williams	P 24.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	75.1%Under prob · Palantir	72.9%no-vig	+2.63%	1.7092count	0.4733prob	0.9903proj	1.008context	DraftKings 275 avg 1 books
09	Geraldo PerdomoAZ	AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 65.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	34.3%Under prob · Palantir	18.7%no-vig	-1.02%	2.3515count	0.6268prob	1.3738proj	1.098context	BetMGM -435 avg 1 books
10	Luke KeaschallMIN	MIN vs CLEGavin Williams	P 24.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	75.1%Under prob · Palantir	72.9%no-vig	+2.58%	1.7146count	0.4702prob	1.0637proj	1.008context	DraftKings 275 avg 1 books
11	José RamírezCLE	CLE vs MINTaj Bradley	P 65.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	34.2%Under prob · Palantir	18.7%no-vig	-0.93%	2.7171count	0.6806prob	1.3679proj	0.942context	BetMGM -435 avg 1 books
12	Steven KwanCLE	CLE vs MINTaj Bradley	P 24.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	75.3%Under prob · Palantir	73.2%no-vig	+2.78%	1.7161count	0.4731prob	1.1542proj	0.942context	DraftKings 280 avg 1 books
13	Fernando Tatis Jr.SD	SD vs ATLChris Sale	P 65.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	34.7%Under prob · Palantir	19.4%no-vig	-0.95%	2.577count	0.6507prob	1.3529proj	1.01context	BetMGM -415 avg 1 books
14	Nick CastellanosSD	SD vs ATLChris Sale	P 34.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	65.9%Under prob · Palantir	64.3%no-vig	-0.76%	2.228count	0.5893prob	1.2186proj	1.01context	FanDuel 170 avg 1 books
15	Chandler SimpsonTB	TB vs TORShane Bieber	P 64.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	35.3%Under prob · Palantir	20.2%no-vig	-0.94%	1.7881count	0.5178prob	1.3044proj	0.992context	BetMGM -395 avg 1 books
16	Jonathan ArandaTB	TB vs TORShane Bieber	P 34.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	65.8%Under prob · Palantir	64.3%no-vig	-0.66%	2.2236count	0.5938prob	1.2318proj	0.992context	FanDuel 170 avg 1 books
17	Alec BurlesonSTL	STL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt	P 64.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	35.5%Under prob · Palantir	20.4%no-vig	-1.01%	2.2703count	0.6037prob	1.2784proj	0.955context	BetMGM -390 avg 1 books
18	Carlos SantanaAZ	AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 32.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	67.7%Under prob · Palantir	66.4%no-vig	-1.04%	2.1278count	0.5536prob	1.1293proj	1.098context	FanDuel 185 avg 1 books
19	Jackson MerrillSD	SD vs ATLChris Sale	P 62.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	37.6%Under prob · Palantir	23.5%no-vig	-0.91%	2.2013count	0.5928prob	1.1873proj	1.01context	BetMGM -325 avg 1 books
20	Matt WallnerMIN	MIN vs CLEGavin Williams	P 33.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	66.9%Under prob · Palantir	65.6%no-vig	-0.66%	2.2729count	0.6219prob	0.9854proj	1.008context	FanDuel 180 avg 1 books
21	Junior CamineroTB	TB vs TORShane Bieber	P 61.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	38.4%Under prob · Palantir	24.7%no-vig	-0.98%	2.4752count	0.6342prob	1.1488proj	0.992context	BetMGM -305 avg 1 books
22	Ramón LaureanoSD	SD vs ATLChris Sale	P 32.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	67.9%Under prob · Palantir	66.8%no-vig	-0.69%	2.1161count	0.5725prob	1.1037proj	1.01context	FanDuel 190 avg 1 books
23	Byron BuxtonMIN	MIN vs CLEGavin Williams	P 61.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	38.7%Under prob · Palantir	25.0%no-vig	-1.11%	2.5197count	0.6608prob	1.1397proj	1.008context	BetMGM -300 avg 1 books
24	Kyle ManzardoCLE	CLE vs MINTaj Bradley	P 29.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	70.5%Under prob · Palantir	69.3%no-vig	-0.97%	1.9824count	0.5453prob	0.9612proj	0.942context	FanDuel 215 avg 1 books
25	Josh BellMIN	MIN vs CLEGavin Williams	P 61.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	38.7%Under prob · Palantir	25.0%no-vig	-0.98%	2.182count	0.5795prob	1.1512proj	1.008context	BetMGM -300 avg 1 books
26	Cedric MullinsTB	TB vs TORShane Bieber	P 29.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	70.7%Under prob · Palantir	69.7%no-vig	-0.78%	1.9602count	0.5424prob	0.991proj	0.992context	FanDuel 220 avg 1 books
27	Miguel AndujarSD	SD vs ATLChris Sale	P 60.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	39.2%Under prob · Palantir	25.6%no-vig	-1.14%	1.7718count	0.4935prob	1.1119proj	1.01context	BetMGM -290 avg 1 books
28	Iván HerreraSTL	STL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt	P 29.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	70.4%Under prob · Palantir	69.3%no-vig	-0.87%	1.9608count	0.5331prob	1.1254proj	0.955context	FanDuel 215 avg 1 books
29	Xander BogaertsSD	SD vs ATLChris Sale	P 59.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	40.4%Under prob · Palantir	27.4%no-vig	-1.11%	1.7674count	0.4936prob	1.069proj	1.01context	BetMGM -265 avg 1 books
30	Nolan ArenadoAZ	AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 31.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	69.0%Under prob · Palantir	67.9%no-vig	-0.78%	2.0406count	0.5512prob	1.1502proj	1.098context	FanDuel 200 avg 1 books
31	Trevor LarnachMIN	MIN vs CLEGavin Williams	P 57.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	42.2%Under prob · Palantir	30.3%no-vig	-0.89%	1.8686count	0.5213prob	0.9994proj	1.008context	BetMGM -230 avg 1 books
32	Royce LewisMIN	MIN vs CLEGavin Williams	P 57.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	43.0%Under prob · Palantir	31.2%no-vig	-1.09%	1.871count	0.509prob	0.9744proj	1.008context	BetMGM -220 avg 1 books
33	Victor Scott IISTL	STL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt	P 54.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	45.3%Under prob · Palantir	34.5%no-vig	-1.28%	1.4475count	0.4153prob	0.9063proj	0.955context	BetMGM -190 avg 1 books
34	Masyn WinnSTL	STL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt	P 55.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	44.9%Under prob · Palantir	34.5%no-vig	-0.76%	1.468count	0.421prob	0.8953proj	0.955context	BetMGM -190 avg 1 books
35	Jake CronenworthSD	SD vs ATLChris Sale	P 53.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	46.6%Under prob · Palantir	36.4%no-vig	-1.33%	1.4774count	0.4233prob	0.8583proj	1.01context	BetMGM -175 avg 1 books
36	Nolan JonesCLE	CLE vs MINTaj Bradley	P 52.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	47.5%Under prob · Palantir	37.7%no-vig	-1.27%	1.4135count	0.4125prob	0.8172proj	0.942context	BetMGM -165 avg 1 books
37	Daniel SchneemannCLE	CLE vs MINTaj Bradley	P 52.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	47.5%Under prob · Palantir	37.7%no-vig	-1.23%	1.5662count	0.4575prob	0.8285proj	0.942context	BetMGM -165 avg 1 books
38	Jordan WalkerSTL	STL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt	P 53.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	46.7%Under prob · Palantir	37.0%no-vig	-0.86%	1.4538count	0.421prob	0.8353proj	0.955context	BetMGM -170 avg 1 books
39	Angel MartínezCLE	CLE vs MINTaj Bradley	P 51.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	48.6%Under prob · Palantir	39.2%no-vig	-1.34%	1.3389count	0.385prob	0.7932proj	0.942context	BetMGM -155 avg 1 books
40	Pedro PagésSTL	STL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt	P 51.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	48.4%Under prob · Palantir	39.2%no-vig	-1.16%	1.3746count	0.3933prob	0.7821proj	0.955context	BetMGM -155 avg 1 books
41	Ramón UríasSTL	STL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt	P 51.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	48.1%Under prob · Palantir	39.2%no-vig	-0.70%	1.3731count	0.4019prob	0.7886proj	0.955context	BetMGM -155 avg 1 books
42	Gabriel AriasCLE	CLE vs MINTaj Bradley	P 48.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	51.5%Under prob · Palantir	43.5%no-vig	-1.21%	1.2779count	0.3853prob	0.7055proj	0.942context	BetMGM -130 avg 1 books
43	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.AZ	AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 39.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5	60.8%Under prob · Palantir	56.5%no-vig	-0.91%	0.8896count	0.2728prob	0.4769proj	1.098context	BetMGM 130 avg 1 books