Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Luis García Jr.

WSH · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupWSH vs TORMax Scherzer
Sample2496.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.0
F 15.5
V 13.8
Model 21.0% Market 12.5% Gap +8.1pp
DraftKings 675 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.0% Market 78.0% Gap +14.6pp
BetMGM -355 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.0%
92 +22 vs proj
Exit velocity91.2
88
Hard-hit%45.8%
80 +16 vs proj
xBA0.349
78
xSLG0.608
79
xwOBA0.354
88
BB%4.4%
11
Bat speed72.2
81
K%16.9%
81
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
29
Range Runs-0.8 · 1B
41
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · 1B
32
Sprint Speed26.5 · 1B
27
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.6%
13
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.2%
50
Correct Decisions61.9%
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline92
13
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.313 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.314 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.025
Opposing pitcherMax Scherzer
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)