Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-07-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-01

Alejandro Kirk

TOR · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 5 Neutral
MatchupTOR vs NYMFreddy Peralta
Sample1886.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.0
F 17.9
V 15.8
Model 17.5% Market 10.1% Gap +7.0pp
DraftKings 855 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.4% Market 77.3% Gap +12.8pp
BetMGM -340 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.0% Market -- Gap +5.0pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.4%
16 -48 vs proj
Exit velocity86.7
32
Hard-hit%35.5%
33 -37 vs proj
xBA0.251
5
xSLG0.360
5
xwOBA0.244
5 -74 vs proj
BB%7.2%
32 -21 vs proj
Bat speed68.5
34
K%18.1%
75 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.0 · C
92
Catcher Throwing-0.7 · C
30
Framing Runs1.9 · C
75
Pop Time2.0 · C
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed22.3 · C
0
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions59.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.316 to 0.378
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcherFreddy Peralta
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)