Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Alejandro Kirk

TOR · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs BALChris Bassitt
Sample2061.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 43.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 43.6% Market 67.2% Gap +11.5pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 14.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 14.1% Market -- Gap +14.5pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
21 -46 vs proj
Exit velocity89.0
63
Hard-hit%42.1%
68
xBA0.304
33
xSLG0.426
23
xwOBA0.303
49 -39 vs proj
BB%10.2%
72 +17 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
55
K%13.1%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs3.3 · C
100
Catcher Throwing-0.7 · C
35
Framing Runs7.0 · C
99
Pop Time2.0 · C
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.8 · C
1
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.316 to 0.378
RegressionNegative · -0.065
Opposing pitcherChris Bassitt
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)