Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 12 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Gabriel Moreno

AZ · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupAZ vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample1404.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.056, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.052, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 57.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.9% Market 69.7% Gap +12.3pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 16.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.8% Market -- Gap +16.6pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
68
Exit velocity89.2
66
Hard-hit%42.5%
69
xBA0.351
82
xSLG0.548
65
xwOBA0.365
95 +16 vs proj
BB%11.4%
83 +22 vs proj
Bat speed69.8
52
K%15.0%
88 +18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.5 · C
92
Catcher Throwing2.0 · C
82
Framing Runs4.7 · C
88
Pop Time1.9 · C
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · C
34
Sprint Speed26.2 · C
22
SB Success Rate75.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.3%
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.8%
26
Correct Decisions62.4%
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.029
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-12
Palantir 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 14193 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1758 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1254 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9476 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 766 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 993 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.056 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)