Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-08-21 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-21

Otto Lopez

MIA · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs WSHBrad Lord
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 53.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.2% Market 64.3% Gap +11.1pp
BetMGM -180 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.4% Market -- Gap +16.1pp
FanDuel 190 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
52
Exit velocity88.6
57
Hard-hit%41.6%
63 +18 vs proj
xBA0.329
62
xSLG0.489
44
xwOBA0.323
70
BB%4.8%
13 -20 vs proj
Bat speed69.5
48
K%13.1%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · SS
93
Arm Strength89.9 · SS
71
Outs Above Avg9.0 · SS
96
Range Runs7.5 · SS
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.2 · SS
95
Bolts3.0 · SS
37
SB Success Rate84.6% · SS
64
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
81

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.051
Opposing pitcherBrad Lord
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)