Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs PITMitch Keller
Sample2159.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.2
F 14.9
V 12.9
Model 14.0% Market 9.3% Gap +4.3pp
DraftKings 935 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.3% Market 81.3% Gap +15.6pp
BetMGM -435 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 26.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.8% Market -- Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.0%
12
Exit velocity85.4
21
Hard-hit%29.2%
13
xBA0.287
18
xSLG0.387
9
xwOBA0.325
69
BB%15.2%
97
Bat speed63.5
3
K%11.9%
96
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
79
Arm Strength89.2 · SS
70
Outs Above Avg9.0 · SS
97
Range Runs6.8 · SS
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · SS
27
SB Success Rate68.2% · SS
23
Sprint Speed26.9 · SS
36
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.5%
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.7%
19
Correct Decisions66.5%
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.297 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.369
RegressionNegative · -0.021
Opposing pitcherMitch Keller
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)